Opinion

Beyond the Lines | A long gaze at Gaza: Can mediators restore peace?

In the Middle East, the American influence has been dented in recent times by China’s role in midwifing the Saudi-Iran rapprochement deal. The American absence of proactive leadership in recent times has been felt especially during the Biden administration

Probal DasGupta Last Updated:October 24, 2023 18:23:03 IST

Palestinians search for casualties at the site of an Israeli strike on a house, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, on 24 October, 2023. Reuters

In a recent OTT series called Kaala Pani, a protagonist delivers a leadership talk where he says that there are no right decisions. A decision that is less wrong than the other options is the right thing to do, he says. In a globalised world, as complex regional rivalries crisscross economic faultlines, countries look to do the right thing that serves their interests.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict produced lines of support along certain affiliations. The Anglo-Saxon belt, American allies in Asia and NATO countries led by the US threw their lot behind Ukraine, ostensibly on account of their own strategic interests. On the other hand, China backed Russia as India played a neutral party quite creditably, all the while ensuring their trade with Russia continued. However, unlike the Ukraine conflict, the Israel-Hamas war has triggered a more dangerous and complex divide that has the potential to create beneficiaries and centres of power.

The dilemma of America

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In the Middle East, the American influence has been dented in recent times by China’s role in midwifing the Saudi-Iran rapprochement deal. The American absence of proactive leadership in recent times has been felt especially during the Biden administration.

America’s ability to douse political conflagrations will be severely tested in the Middle East that continues to burn while American allies Israel and Saudi Arabia, briefly brought together, are about to part ways. Unlike Ukraine, the fault lines in the Middle East are entrenched along religious and identity lines that makes it an older and more unresolvable conflict than a territorial one in Europe. Both the powerful players — Israel and Saudi Arabia — are also riven by domestic tussles, which makes their governments tied down to compulsions while taking decisions in favour of peace.

As the Gaza war progresses into a lengthened phase, destruction and death toll begin to obscure rights and wrongs, and instead blur lines of ethics and correctness. In such a scenario, the American support for Israel will be seen in the light of how the superpower draws red lines of use of proportionate force by Israel. Though the provocation was initiated by Hamas, history bears testimony that mounting collateral civilian casualties in any long war, is bound to put the onus of truce on the militarily advantaged side, which in this case is Israel.

A brief detente with the enemy?

Interestingly, the US has reached out to its archrival China to use its influence over Iran to prevent opening another front in the ongoing war. America might have to use Chinese offices to contain the spiralling conflict in the Middle East. It puts the US in a position where they could be seen as sharing temporary power with China in the region: an indication that power balance is shifting from the hegemony of the US to a dual power structure to deal with the crisis.

It is pertinent to note that China has approached various regions differently, depending on what works for their interests. In Southeast Asia and East Asia, China plays the role of the bully — usurping territories, aggressively pursuing disputes and trying to push other stakeholders onto the back foot by a combination of military posturing and diplomatic adventurism.

On the other hand, in the Middle East, where territorial disputes don’t play out as a decisive outcome for China, it focuses on its avatar as an influencer of calm: a voice of reason. Therefore, it is content to play a waiting game, positioning itself as a potential mediator, while the US struggles to calibrate a position that can be acceptable to the Arab world and to Israel.

Is the US seen as untrustworthy? Where does China fit in?

Middle East and the Middle Kingdom of East

Earlier this year, China offered to mediate between Israel and Palestine, riding on the back of a newfound reputation of mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran. As the war rages in Gaza, China finds itself in a strange situation with its non-committal stance in a deeply divided region. Effective diplomacy demands a clear-headed approach and China, in trying to fuel its ambition as a mediator, made a generic statement on maintaining peace while insisting on the creation of Palestine, when Hamas attacked, and then went on to criticise Israeli attacks that killed civilians in Israel. Like in the Ukraine war, the Chinese have pretended to be neutral while appearing to quietly support one of the two sides.

China believes that Arab opposition to Israel means that it cannot afford to annoy the Arab states. China’s leanings towards the Arab states is not without its history. In the 1960s, China offered support to Palestinians through supply of weapons. After Deng Xiaoping took over at the helm, a more pragmatic approach demanded Chinese proximity to the Western world, replacing the erstwhile Soviet Union with a friendly communist Asian state in the 1990s. With the romance of a warm embrace of the west came better diplomatic ties with Israel. The Palestinians were forgotten in the Chinese urge to integrate with a world they had long abhorred.

A decade ago, China was accused of wiring money to Hamas through the Bank of China for use in its militant activities of acquiring arms. The accusation went unproven but the impression stuck. In the past decade, weapons used by Hamas were found to be manufactured in China and Russia. Iran — a common ally was the channel used for the supply of funds and weapons.

In recent times, Chinese firms made a beeline for Israel to boost its defence and cyber tech plans. Israeli companies and academics were regularly contacted to build Chinese thought leadership and capability in the area. The Israelis had got wind of an influx of Chinese diplomats and businessmen in the garb of government agents. A surging China was beginning to become a source of worry in Israel.

BRI in the Middle

The Middle East has been directly related to the future of China’s BRI plans. Ironically, the richest nation in the region maintained its distance from China for a long time. In 1990, Saudi Arabia reluctantly recognised the Chinese government, albeit with much suspicion. The growth of the Chinese power juggernaut and the opening up of Saudi foreign policies to leverage its strengths has meant that the Middle Eastern kingdom has cozied up of late to the middle kingdom of the east. The relationship was built on the business strengths of both sides: in exchange for Beijing’s investment in the economy, Saudi offered to be a key partner in trade. Both countries struck a purple cord of agreement in their shared disdain for human rights.

This led to China embracing the Arab countries as partners and co-opting them in its plans of a trade route running through the region. Chinese construction projects on BRI in Saudi Arabia and the UAE involve over $50 billion and $40 billion in investments, while its trade with Iran continues to grow at a rapid pace. Over the next two decades, a few hundred billion dollars from China is expected to flow into projects involving Tehran making Iran dependent on China for its economic growth while it stands isolated as a pariah to the western world led by the US. What does this mean? It implies, consequently that America’s effective instructions to Hezbollah can only come via Beijing — which makes the US dependent on China as an arbiter of peace.

Riddle of the middle

China lobbies for the support of Arab countries on the issue of the Uighurs. China’s soft support for Palestinians while asking for restraint from Israel in its counterattacks, cannot prevent the current war in Gaza from turning into a long-drawn Israel-Arab dispute where China stays at hand as a future arbiter. On the other hand, China’s influence over Iran could be a key feature in redefining its relationship with its bete noire US. As China’s bigger objective of Taiwan looms large on the horizon and America and its allies are seen as a spoilsport to China’s objective, this is the latter’s chance to keep the West quiet and occupied.

A terrorist attack should have attracted outright criticism from everyone, which didn’t quite materialise. Israel’s future actions ought to have the maturity of a responsible state that acts tough against deadly terrorists such as Hamas, but considers equally the fallout of collateral damage against innocent civilians. Much will depend on the hostage situation in Gaza, which also brings into play the role of Iran and other backers of Hamas.

In wars away from its area of immediate territorial ambitions, Xi has tended to avoid taking sides. On the other hand, Biden has rushed in to defuse tensions. Both sides are ostensibly seen to side one over the other. The war in Gaza would need the influential powers to do the right thing. China needs to be seen as opposed to the terrorist attacks of Hamas as much as the Americans are expected to be influencers who will check a disproportionate use of force by Israel to prolong the war. As of now the right decision in the interest of the world would be to prevent others from joining the war and prevent it from becoming a wider conflagration that consumes the region, which the world can ill afford.

The writer is the author of ‘Watershed 1967: India’s Forgotten Victory over China’. His fortnightly column for FirstPost — ‘Beyond The Lines’ — covers military history, strategic issues, international affairs and policy-business challenges. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Tweets @iProbal

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