
Opinion
Vantage | Will Hezbollah change the course of Israel-Hamas war?
It's a political call for Hezbollah as well. They have a cosy role in Lebanese politics right now
The Vantage Take Last Updated: November 04, 2023 14:11:57 IST
Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah addresses his supporters, in Beirut. Image courtesy: REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
Hezbollah, how do you even define them? A political party or militia or an Iranian proxy, and right now, Israel’s biggest threat. Hezbollah claim to have more than 100 thousand fighters who are well trained, battle hardened, and ready to fight.
Unlike Hamas or the Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah are a whole different ball game. In the last few weeks, they have launched multiple attacks on Israel including dozens of rocket strikes, precision missiles, and artillery shelling. Israel has also been hitting back. Hezbollah say around 66 of their fighters have died, on the other side, the IDF has lost eight men.
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On Friday, the attacks increased, Hezbollah struck 19 locations along the Israel border, and there was a reason for it. The Hezbollah chief, Hassan Nasrallah, made a speech on Friday, his first speech since the Israel-Hamas war. Many of his aides had given statements on the war, but he was silent throughout. He broke that silence on Friday.
The build-up was long, but his speech was longer, around 1.5 hours of threats, warnings and rhetoric. Nasrallah said the October 7 attack was 100 per cent Palestinian. Meaning, Hezbollah did not know about it. He praised the Hamas terrorists who carried out the attack, and he also answered the most pressing question: Will Hezbollah join the war?
Well, Nasrallah had an interesting answer, he says Hezbollah already joined the war on 8 October.
“Regarding our Lebanese front, as some were saying, we entered the battle on 8 October,” said the Hezbollah chief.
“What’s happening in Gaza today is not like any other previous war. It’s unlike anything that has happened before. It’s not just another battle; it’s a decisive and historic one. What unfolds after it will differ significantly from what it was before,” he added.
What does that mean? It means the status quo is likely to remain with limited Hezbollah attacks and strikes. But no full-scale war for the moment, that seems to be Nasrallah’s position. Having said that, it could change in the blink of an eye. Nasrallah warned about this, he said all options are on the table with Israel. What they choose will depend on Israel’s actions in Gaza. The whole country was waiting for this.
Most schools and shops had been shut. Tens of thousands gathered in Beirut. All of them had just one question. Would their country join the war? Nasrallah may have given a vague answer, but you get the drift.
He is not looking for more escalation. At least, not yet. The US too had a similar assessment of the situation. They said Hezbollah would not enter the war.
“We’re concerned about continued attacks on Israeli forces there in the north, as are the Israelis. But I don’t believe we’ve seen any indication yet specifically that Hezbollah is ready to go in full force,” said White House National Security Spokesperson John Kirby.
The rest of Nasrallah’s speech was along expected lines – ‘America is the great Satan. Israel is lying. Their soldiers will fail in Gaza, and Hamas did a great job on 7 October’ – typical Hezbollah claims, nothing substantial.
Yet, concerns remain, and that’s because of Hezbollah’s past. They’re a violent and unpredictable group. Let’s look a bit closely at their history.
Who are they? Why do they hate Israel? And how big is the threat?
Hezbollah means party of God, it was founded in 1982. The same year, Israel invaded southern Lebanon. They wanted to drive out Palestinian militants based there, but after that, Israel occupied the area. So a group of Shia clerics got together, their goal was two-fold. One, drive the Israelis out, and two, establish an Islamic State in Lebanon.
Their inspiration was Iran. In 1979, the revolution had brought Ruhollah Khomeini to power in Tehran. Hezbollah pledged allegiance to him. In return, Iran gave them support including all kinds of weapons, money and training. With that, Hezbollah went on the offensive. They attacked Israeli military assets in the south, kidnapped dozens of Western citizens, and also took part in the Lebanese civil war.
Lebanon has a lot of sectarian divisions: Christians, Sunni Muslims, and Shia Muslims as well. For 15 years, these groups fought each other. From 1975 to 1990, after its founding, Hezbollah also joined this fight. When the war ended, most of the militias gave up their weapons, they were disarmed. But Hezbollah was not. In the 1990s, they joined Lebanese politics. Around one-third of the country was Shia Muslims, so they had popular support, but it doesn’t mean they abandoned violence.
Hezbollah carried out guerilla attacks on Israel. So in 2000, the IDF pulled out from Lebanon. Hezbollah called it a major victory. They claimed to be the first Arab army to make Israel give up land. But that confidence soon became over-confidence.
In 2006, Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel. It was a pressure tactic. A number of Hezbollah fighters were in Israeli jails, and they wanted to get them out. But the move backfired.
Israel responded with an all-out war, the fighting lasted for more than 30 day, at the end of it, Hezbollah lost more than 1,000 soldiers. And Israel? Around 120.
The attacks also changed the face of southern Lebanon, the place was reduced to rubble. Total damages were worth 2.8 billion dollars. So the question is: Will Hezbollah risk a repeat?
Lebanon’s economy is in a really bad shape. US’ aircraft carriers are just off the coast. So attacking will be costly. Having said that, they do have the firepower, more than 100 thousand fighters, 120 thousand missiles, and pretty soon – maybe air defences.
The US says Russia’s Wagner Group could help Hezbollah. How? By giving them Russian SA-22 air defence systems. It can shoot down enemy jets and missiles. So Hezbollah is mobilised and ready.
All they need is a formal declaration of war. But that did not come on Friday. It’s a political call for Hezbollah as well. They have a cosy role in Lebanese politics right now. They call the shots, they have the best services. So why risk that with a war?
At the same time, there will be pressure from Iran. If Tehran wants an escalation, they will turn to Hezbollah. One of their proxies has already declared war on Israel, Houthis in Yemen. If Iran asks Hezbollah to follow, will the leadership agree?
It’s a test for them as well, to see how tight the axis of resistance really is.
Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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