Opinion
Vantage | Why winter and West will decide which way Ukraine war heads
While a stalemate might serve Russia's interests by providing time to regroup, it places Ukraine in a precarious position
The Vantage Take Last Updated: November 03, 2023 16:57:58 IST
(File) An assault unit commander from the 3rd Assault Brigade who goes by the call sign 'Fedia' raises the Ukrainian flag as a symbol of liberation of the frontline village of Andriivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine, on 16 September, 2023. AP
The conflict in Ukraine has persisted and its impact is becoming increasingly evident. As we mark day 617 of the Russia-Ukraine war, it’s clear that the term “long” barely does justice to the ongoing struggle. While we haven’t discussed Ukraine in a while, this absence doesn’t indicate an improvement in the situation. War fatigue is settling in and the people are growing weary.
Recent escalation in Russian attacks
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In recent times, Russia intensified its attacks shelling over 100 settlements in a single day marking the highest level of aggression witnessed in 2023. Additionally, Russia fired approximately 20 missiles at Ukraine with Kyiv reporting the successful interception of 18 of them. The conflict shows no signs of abating.
One of Ukraine’s significant concerns is the impending arrival of the notorious Russian winter. As winter approaches, the front lines are destined to freeze, making combat even more challenging. This marks the second winter of this brutal conflict and lessons from the previous winter warn of the difficulties that lie ahead.
While Ukraine initiated a much-anticipated counter-offensive in June, it appears to have fallen short of expectations. Ukrainian soldiers find themselves stranded in the eastern industrial city of Avdiivka and reports suggest that Russia intends to encircle them. The consensus is that Ukraine has not made significant headway in breaking through Russian lines.
Zelensky’s resilience in the face of adversity
President Volodymyr Zelensky is not giving up. He emphasizes that the modern world often becomes accustomed to quick successes and that Ukraine’s achievements in this war are extraordinary and deserving of recognition.
“The modern world is set up in such a way that it becomes accustomed to success too quickly. When the full-scale aggression began, many in the world did not think Ukraine would endure. The colossal things done by our people, by our soldiers, are now taken for granted. Ukraine’s success in the battle for the Black Sea is something that will be in the history books, although it is not so often discussed now,” said Zelensky.
Ukraine’s bold military actions
Ukraine did launch daring attacks such as targetting the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and sending drones into Moscow. However, these successes have been sporadic and on the front lines Ukraine is struggling to make a significant impact.
Even some of Ukraine’s generals admit that the counter-offensive has reached a stalemate with neither side making substantial progress. They suggest that new technology, meaning advanced weaponry, is needed to break this impasse. In contrast, Russia remains committed to its special military operation and rejects the notion of a stalemate.
“No, it (the Ukrainian conflict) didn’t reach a stalemate. Russia continues its special military operation and will fulfil all its goals. It is absurd for the Kyiv regime even to talk about any perspectives of victory on the battlefield. The sooner the Kyiv regime understands this, the sooner some other perspectives will open up for them,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
Biden’s ambitious aid package
President Joe Biden proposed a significant aid package worth around $106 billion to bolster Ukraine’s capabilities. This aid includes crucial financial support and advanced weaponry. However, this package faces resistance from Republicans who argue that it should be exclusively for Israel and not Ukraine. The political debate around the allocation of this aid could have significant implications for Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
War fatigue spreading across Europe
War fatigue is not unique to the United States; it’s spreading across Europe as well. Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni inadvertently exposed her concerns when she was tricked by Russian comedians who posed as an African leader during a phone conversation. Her unintentional revelation shed light on the challenges Ukraine faces and the potential duration of the conflict.
The danger for Ukraine is that if its allies lose interest they may not be able to sustain this protracted war. Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba is actively seeking support from European nations and emphasizing the need for a stronger, consolidated policy on defence industries within the European Union.
“I will raise, with my fellow colleagues the point that among many policies that the European Union is implementing, we need a new, strong, consolidated policy, EU policy on cooperation of defence industries. Of EU countries and of candidate countries. Because we see that in order to defend itself, in order to resolve conflicts and deter aggressions in Europe, efforts in the area of defence industry need to be stepped up,” said Kuleba.
Ukraine’s preparedness as pilots undergo training
One potential game-changer could be the F-16 fighter jet. Ukraine’s pilots are already undergoing training and reports suggest that around 60 of these jets will arrive to bolster Ukraine’s air capabilities. Russia, of course, dismisses this as futile claiming that the F-16s won’t last more than 20 days in combat. However, the introduction of these advanced aircraft could significantly alter the dynamics of the conflict.
“I would like to point out that 37 aircraft is almost twice the number of F-16s that are guaranteed to be delivered to Ukraine. In other words, with this kind of performance of our air defence systems, it is worth about 20 days of work,” said Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu.
Consequences of a prolonged stalemate
While a stalemate might serve Russia’s interests by providing time to regroup, it places Ukraine in a precarious position. As we approach the Russian winter, all eyes are on Ukraine, a nation that remains determined to persevere, but one that desperately needs a breakthrough to change the course of this brutal conflict.
Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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