Opinion

Vantage | 10 questions that explain Israel-Hamas war and where it stands

It doesn't matter where you live. Chances are, it will affect you

The Vantage Take Last Updated:October 10, 2023 17:08:04 IST

I know there’s a lot happening right now. You are being flooded by information. So, let’s try to simplify things. Let’s look at 10 questions that explain this conflict, where it stands, and what happens next.

Question 1: What is the situation on the front line?

Israel says the border communities have been retaken. Around 1,000 Hamas terrorists had launched an incursion on Saturday. They held on to localities in Israel’s south. The next day, Israel declared war. They called in the military and the special forces. There were gruelling gunfights in the south but now, most of the border communities have been liberated. And the terrorists? Either killed or driven out.

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But the battle isn’t limited to southern Israel anymore. It’s spread across the region. Israel is carrying out air raids on Gaza. More than 1,000 Hamas targets have been hit. You can see plumes of black smoke across the strip. Many civilian buildings were also hit. But Hamas isn’t backing down. In fact, they are hitting back. Hamas fired more rockets throughout the day. Air raid sirens rang across central Israel. People in Jerusalem were seen heading for cover. So, this isn’t a localised incursion anymore. It’s much bigger.

Question 2: What’s the death toll?

Last we checked it was around 1,200 – around 700 dead in Israel, which is their worst toll in decades, and more than 400 in Gaza. At least 4,000 people are injured on both sides. The United Nations says around 1,23,000 people in Gaza have been displaced. They have fled their homes, so the human toll is massive. And remember, this is in just three days of fighting. If the war escalates, it could be worse.

Question 3: What happens next?

They’re not looking at de-escalation. Not yet. Israel has called up around 300,000 reservists. Their defence ministry has announced a siege: “We are imposing a complete siege on Gaza, there will be no electricity, no food, no water, no fuel, everything will be closed. We are fighting against human animals, and we are acting accordingly,” Yoav Gallant, Israeli defense minister said.

Israel’s immediate priority is this – freeing the hostages held by Hamas, more than 100 of them are in Gaza. But after that, what does Israel do? There is talk of a land invasion to occupy Gaza, to topple the Hamas. Israel’s government has not officially confirmed this but their prime minister did issue a warning. He asked Palestinians to start leaving. He said Gaza would be turned into an island of ruins. So the operation isn’t over. Plus, Hamas has lost the element of surprise, which means it’s advantage Israel. They decide where this war goes next.

Question 4: Was Iran involved in this attack?

Officially, Tehran has denied any involvement, but Hamas spokesmen say they did get help from Iran. The planning began in August. But frankly, it’s not surprising. Iran and Hamas have a long history of cooperation. Their support, their weapons, all of it comes from Iran. So, the chances of Hamas going solo are very low.

Question 5: Will the war spill over?

That’s probably the biggest risk right now. The Hezbollah in Lebanon have joined the fighting. Like Hamas, the Hezbollah is also close to Iran, sort of like an Iranian proxy. On Sunday, they began firing at Israeli positions. Hezbollah says their guns and rockets are with Hamas. In other words, they are in full support. So the worry is clear: Hezbollah could open a second front in this war.

Question 6: What is Israel’s most important partner United States doing?

Well, the US President Joe Biden spoke to Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday. He said more military aid is on the way. He also deployed U.S. military assets to the region. One of them stands out – a carrier strike group. The U.S. has deployed the world’s largest aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean – the USS Gerald Ford. They are also sending fighter jets to the region – both the F-15s and the F-35s.

So, America’s message is clear: let Israel do its job, don’t dare intervene. And this support is key for Israel. It gives them the freedom to carry on without fearing outside attacks, say from Iran or Hezbollah.

Question 7: What does this war mean for Netanyahu?

He was called mister security. The man who knew Israel’s military and intelligence inside out. Yet, this happened under him. It’s not a good look for any Israeli prime minister. His critics say he was too distracted, maybe by the judicial reforms he pushed or his tricky coalition politics. Either way, he dropped the ball. There are 100 hostages in Gaza right now. Their families are putting pressure on Netanyahu. They want him to negotiate to get them out. But those on the right want him to push on, to punish the Hamas, so he may win this war. But the damage is already done.

Question 8: Is this the end of the Arab-Israel normalisation process?

For now, yes. It will be on hold. No Arab nation will touch the issue, at least not for a while. Maybe that was the whole idea behind this attack.

Question 9: What happens to Palestine?

Well, this attack has complicated matters. Countries like Germany and Austria are rethinking support to Palestine. Austria has ended all aid to Palestine and Germany says it will review whether aid should be given. What does this show? That countries are losing patience with Palestine, their divided leadership, their radical tactics. All of it has fewer takers now.

Question 10: How does this war impact you?

More than 1,000 dead is enough to move any human being. But beyond that, there are other impacts. It doesn’t matter where you live. Chances are, it will affect you. Just consider oil prices. War in West Asia always spooks the oil market. Oil prices have already jumped over 5 per cent. Remember, Israel and Palestine don’t produce oil, they are not involved in oil shipments, yet this is the impact. So imagine if Iran gets involved or there is fighting in the Gulf. Then oil prices would go through the roof. So, this is a war that will impact everyone.

Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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