Claims made by Mark Drakeford about how his ULEZ-style war on Welsh motorists is likely to save more people from dying in road crashes was today called into question by opponents of the scheme.
The Labour First Minister of Wales is facing a furious backlash among motoring campaigners, Tories and the public after unveiling plans to impose blanket 20mph speed limits across the country from Sunday.
Mr Drakeford has claimed that the hugely controversial speed limit reduction will protect lives and save the NHS in Wales £92million a year, citing a public health study that estimated the 20mph default limit could reduce collisions by 40 per cent every year.
He also insisted that it will save six to 10 lives annually as well as 1,200 to 2,000 people avoiding injuring by making Wales’s streets safer for playing, walking and cycling.
A study by Public Health Wales and Edinburgh Napier University published last year estimated that the policy would spare the health service tens of millions of pounds a year, due to fewer deaths or injuries. The Welsh Government confirmed the introduction will cost £32million, but said this would be outweighed by the reduced impact on the NHS and emergency services.
However, the Welsh Conservatives cited official documents warning that the policy could inflict a £9billion blow to the Welsh economy by increasing journey times. Pointing to Spain as an example, which has implemented a similar policy, Welsh Tory leader Andrew RT Davies warned that road deaths actually increased after the scheme was rolled out.
And the RAC told MailOnline today suggested it was pointless targeting main roads where there are fewer pedestrians.
Asked about the data on a potential reduction in road deaths, Mr Davies declared: ‘These claims are rubbish. When a similar policy was implemented in Spain, road fatalities went up.
INTERACTIVE MAP: Use the layers filter on the top left to hide 30mph roads (in red / pink) and just show 20mph roads (in blue / orange)
A screenshot of the Welsh Government’s map of 20mph roads, taken from its website by MailOnline this morning before it crashed. Roads that will become 20mph by virtue of legislation are shown in orange. Roads that could become 20mph by order are shown in blue
A message on the Welsh Government website today, showing that the map is unavailable
‘Labour have admitted their blanket 20mph speed limits will cost the Welsh economy up to £9billion. This economic hit will result in less cash going towards our Welsh NHS.’
How will the 20mph speed limit work in Wales – and will there be any exemptions?
The default national speed limit in Wales will fall from 30mph to 20mph on ‘restricted roads’ from this Sunday.
From that date, the maximum speed you can legally travel on these types of roads will be 20mph.
‘Restricted roads’ are classified as those with streetlights spaced no more than 200 yards apart, usually located in residential and built-up areas.
However not all 30mph roads are restricted roads, and these will remain at 30mph.
For restricted roads, local authorities and the two Trunk Road agencies in Wales can also make exceptions to the default speed limit in consultation with local communities.
The Welsh Government says it is making the changes to reduce the number of collisions and severe injuries from them; encouraging more people to walk and cycle; helping to improve health and wellbeing; and making streets safer.
The Living Streets campaign group said Spain reduced the speed limit to 30kmh (18.6mph) on most of its roads in 2019, and since then, there have been 20 per cent fewer urban road deaths, with fatalities down by 34 per cent for cyclists and 24 per cent for pedestrians. Mr Drakeford also quoted the figures today.
But Natasha Asghar, the Welsh Tories’ shadow transport minister, told MailOnline: ‘Labour continues to claim that the similar policy change in Spain has been a resounding success.
‘What they won’t tell you is that according to statistics in Spain, they closed the year 2022 with 1,145 road deaths, an increase of 14 per cent over the figures for 2021 when their blanket policy was introduced. How can we trust the figures they have given us in terms of the predicted impact in Wales?
‘With compliance proven to be low in the trial areas, accidents may continue to occur at the same rate as before the blanket change, leaving Wales with only a £33million bill for implementation and a £9billion hit to the Welsh economy as the consequence of the rollout.
‘That is why the Welsh Conservatives were calling for a targeted policy and not a blanket change. We need to target the sensitive areas as well as improve awareness and education on the consequences of speeding in our communities.’
Police forces in Wales last year recorded 3,312 road collisions involving personal injury, which resulted in 4,442 casualties.
Of these, 93 people were killed (2 per cent), 921 seriously injured (21 per cent) and 3,428 ‘slightly injured’ (77 per cent).
Welsh Government data shows that out of all the road deaths last year, two were at 20mph and 29 were at 30mph. The highest number was 34, on 60mph roads.
Living Streets claims that if a pedestrian is struck by a vehicle at 20mph they have a 97 per cent chance of survival, but this is 92 per cent at 30mph.
First Minister Mark Drakeford (pictured with King Charles III and Queen Camilla in Brecon on July 20) said the reduction will protect lives and save the NHS in Wales £92million a year
But Wales’s emergency services have warned that the blanket 20mph limits will slow down response times, effectively putting lives at risk.
Drivers warned not to rely on sat navs when Welsh roads switch
Drivers are being warned not to rely on sat navs for the speed limit on Welsh roads when a cut from 30mph to 20mph is imposed from Sunday.
The RAC said motorists should ‘pay full attention’ to signs rather than electronic devices after the change is made.
Its head of policy Simon Williams said: ‘It’s vitally important that drivers are fully aware of the arrival of the 20mph limit in Wales, and pay full attention to all road signage.
‘And, until sat nav systems have been fully updated, they shouldn’t rely on them to know what the speed limit is on any particular stretch of Welsh road.’
Mr Williams said compliance with 20mph limits is ‘quite poor’ and it would be ‘more effective to target areas where they are most needed’ such as on residential roads or in areas where there is high footfall.
He added: ‘Even if compliance with new 20mph limits is poor, it should lead to an overall reduction in speeds which will have a positive effect on road safety.’
A furious backlash has seen the new signs defaced across Wales in areas including Conwy, Gwynedd, Newport, Torfaen, Wrexham and Flintshire.
Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt said having such a limit as the default for many roads is ‘crazy’, after acknowledging there are circumstances where 20mph is a good idea.
The Cabinet Minister went on to accuse Labour of ‘punishing’ motorists.
Meanwhile the RAC issued an urgent warning to drivers not to rely on sat navs for the speed limit on Welsh roads, telling them to ‘pay full attention’ to signs instead.
RAC head of policy Simon Williams said: ‘Research by the RAC suggests compliance with 20mph speed limits is quite poor with an increasing number of drivers believing the limit is inappropriate for the road.
‘Rather than setting a default 20mph limit on all restricted roads, we believe it would be more effective to target areas where they are most needed – for example on residential roads or in areas where there is high footfall – as opposed to main ‘arterial’ roads where there are few pedestrians.
‘However, even if compliance with new 20mph limits is poor, it should lead to an overall reduction in speeds which will have a positive effect on road safety.
‘Better still, would be to enforce existing limits regularly to encourage drivers to slow down and to modify roads to prevent drivers from going too fast in the first place, for example by constructing traffic islands, well-designed speed humps or chicanes.
‘It’s vitally important that drivers are fully aware of the arrival of the 20mph limit in Wales, and pay full attention to all road signage.
‘And, until sat nav systems have been fully updated, they shouldn’t rely on them to know what the speed limit is on any particular stretch of Welsh road.’
Drivers in Wales are tying red ribbons to their cars in protest against the new 20mph limits
Also today, an interactive map on the Welsh Government’s website to show locations of the 20mph roads crashed this morning amid high demand, but later came back online.
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Speaking in the House of Commons yesterday, Conservative MP Virginia Crosbie for Ynys Mon said: ‘The Labour Government in Cardiff supported by Plaid Cymru will be introducing a blanket 20mph speed restriction in built-up areas across Wales from September 17.
‘In many places – outside schools, outside hospitals – 20mph is appropriate.
‘Does the Leader of the House agree with many of my Ynys Mon constituents that this blanket approach will impact main roads and impact the Welsh economy?
‘And will she make time for a debate on how we should be supporting the Welsh economy, not punishing it?’
Ms Mordaunt replied: ‘This is absolutely insane even by the standards of Labour’s Welsh Government.
‘They have ignored businesses and they have ignored the public. They are pushing ahead with this scheme despite huge opposition to it and I think the latest estimate is it will cost the Welsh economy £4.5billion.
‘But more disturbingly it is going to increase individuals’ fuel bills considerably and actually be harmful to the environment.
‘(Ms Crosbie) is right, there are circumstances where of course 20mph speed limits are a good idea, but having them as the default for many roads is crazy.
‘Instead of punishing motorists, Labour should be focusing on fixing public transport, in particular the trains.’
Drivers are worried over proposals for a blanket 20mph speed in all built-up areas in Wales. Pictured is a sign in North Cardiff, one of the eight areas where the scheme has been piloted
Ms Mordaunt added: ‘This situation is what the Labour Party refers to as their blueprint for governing Britain.’
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The Welsh Government, responding to why people say the change will cost the economy £4.5 billion, writes on its website: ‘Our assessment shows that reducing speeds to 20mph can result in an average increase of one minute per journey, nine lives saved and 98 serious injuries prevented each year.
‘Before the law was passed, we produced an impact assessment that considered all the potential costs. This was included in the explanatory memorandum.
‘It included the costs of any delays to travel time. The method used is now under academic debate for its effectiveness when calculating small delays.
‘So the estimated cost to the economy of £4.5 billion over 30 years may not be an accurate reflection of the true cost. The slightly longer travel time was the only negative economic impact identified.
‘It is estimated that the casualty prevention savings, including the reduced impact on NHS and emergency services, could be up to £92 million every year.’
Ms Mordaunt is the MP for Portsmouth North.
Portsmouth was the ‘first British city to implement a 20mph speed limit on almost all residential roads to reduce road casualties and protect pedestrians and cyclists’, according to the city council’s website.
Today, Mr Drakeford said drivers will be allowed to ‘get used’ to widespread 20mph limits from Sunday before enforcement begins.
Other parts of England shown above have also seen the introduction of low speed zones
He told BBC Breakfast: ‘I anticipate that there will be a number of weeks while people get used to a change of this sort. It is a major change. It will need time to bed in.
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‘It is not a change that is being introduced in order to make life difficult for people and therefore the enforcement authorities will approach it in that way.
‘(They are) very well used to doing it, (they) enforce speed limits of all sorts in every part of Wales.
‘The approach will be a reasonable one in which we give people a chance to get used to the new regime.
‘And then, as the police say, people who flagrantly and deliberately are not prepared to obey the rules that everybody else will be following, then that will be a different matter.’
He also said employers must make sure their workers can do their roles without breaking reduced speed limits.
He told BBC Breakfast: ‘Responsible employers should organise the working day of their employees in a way that allows them to discharge the duties that fall on them in a way that allows them to do it within the law.
‘They should be doing that now. They will need to do it in the future.
‘There is no excuse for employers deliberately to set out to require their employees not to be able to live with the rules that everybody else has to live with.
‘And in this case, let’s just remember for a moment, but all this is about making sure that all those people, drivers included, are safe on the road, and that we reduce, here in Wales, the number of road traffic accidents and the number of people who lose their lives every day on the roads in Wales.’
Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt said such a limit as the default for many roads is ‘crazy’
Mr Drakeford also said increasing journey times to save lives is not an ‘unfair bargain’.
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘Even if you add a minute to every journey, I say to people – and when I’m speaking to people, I think people understand this – it’s going to take you a minute longer to make your journey, and we will save 10 people’s lives in Wales every year as a result of that one minute contribution that you are making. It doesn’t seem a bad or unfair bargain.’
Mr Drakeford said a similar speed limit cut in Spain reduced road deaths in urban areas by a fifth. He said: ‘Driving more slowly in built up urban areas saves people’s lives.’
He added: ‘I think the evidence is incontrovertible. It’s why we had this in the Labour Party manifesto at our election in 2021 and this weekend we will deliver that promise.’
Earlier, Mr Drakeford said: ‘This is a manifesto commitment of the Labour Party, and it was in our election manifesto.
‘Politicians are very often criticised for not keeping their promises and this is a promise that we will be keeping here in Wales.’
Meanwhile Transport for London (TfL), which Labour Mayor of London Mr Khan chairs, said it will roll out another 40 miles of 20mph zones across multiple boroughs in the capital.
Once completed, nearly 90 miles of TfL roads will have been turned into 20mph limits.
TfL’s walking and cycling commissioner, Will Norman, said: ‘TfL data shows that 20mph speed limits are reducing the number of collisions on London’s roads, which is why I’m pleased the 20mph programme has been expanded.’
The Conservatives have made comparisons to London’s Ultra Low Emissions Zone (Ulez) which was expanded by Mr Khan on August 29.
Mr Drakeford first proposed the plan in May 2019 – and the Welsh Government has insisted it will reduce crashes, save lives, cut noise pollution and encourage people to leave their cars at home and walk or cycle instead.
But motoring campaigner Howard Cox, founder of FairFuelUK and Reform UK’s London mayoral candidate, told MailOnline last month: ‘This draconian anti-driver stupidity will not save lives, but may instead cause more accidents.
‘Drivers continually monitoring the speedometer removes their focus from what’s on the road ahead.
‘It also increases NOx pollution compared to driving effectively at the sensible efficient engine speed of 30mph.
‘This is yet another misguided virtue signalling costly waste of time that mirrors London’s own political folly, namely the cash grabbing Ulez-expansion scheme that the majority there don’t want or need either.’