Explainers
Primaries, trials, convention, and election: How 2024 will play out for Donald Trump
Even before Colorado's Supreme Court ruled that Donald Trump is ineligible to hold the US presidency, the former leader and frontrunner for the 2024 Republican nomination was facing what can only be described as an unprecedented 2024
FP Explainers December 20, 2023 10:00:27 IST 
Donald Trump, who served as President from 2017 to 2021, will most likely begin his hectic year with a US Supreme Court decision. AP
Donald Trump is preparing for a very complicated 2024. In an unprecedented move on Tuesday, the Colorado Supreme Court removed him from the state’s 2024 ballot, saying that he is not an eligible presidential candidate as per the 14th Amendment’s “insurrectionist ban”.
The 4-3 verdict will be put on hold until 4 January, awaiting Trump’s appeal to the US Supreme Court, which could resolve the case for the country.
The state Supreme Court judgment only pertains to Colorado, but the historic decision will roil the 2024 presidential campaign. Colorado election officials have stated that the dispute must be resolved by 5 January, the statutory deadline for establishing the list of candidates for the 5 March GOP primary.
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Even before Colorado’s Supreme Court ruled Tuesday that Donald Trump is ineligible to hold the US presidency, the former leader and frontrunner for the 2024 Republican nomination was facing what can only be described as an unprecedented 2024.
Here is a look at what the Republican billionaire’s agenda could look like, between elections, trials and a bid at being his party’s standard-bearer in the race for the White House.
Early 2024: Primaries
The 77-year-old Trump, who occupied the Oval Office from 2017 to 2021, will now likely kick off his hectic year with a US Supreme Court ruling.
The right-leaning high court will be asked to weigh in on the Colorado case, which hinges on a constitutional prohibition on federal officials appearing on the ballot after breaking their oath of office by taking part in an insurrection.
Then Trump will head to Iowa, the Midwestern state organising the Republican Party’s first presidential nominating contests of the year on 15 January.
The primary election cycle can run through June, meaning it has something of an outsized footprint in American politics.
The northeastern state of New Hampshire, which borders Canada, will organise its primary the following week on 23 January.
Trump, who was indicted four times in less than six months, is so far crushing his rivals in opinion polls, with about 63 per cent of likely primary voters planning to cast ballots for him, according to poll aggregator RealClearPolitics.
His closest competitor, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, stands at 12 per cent.
March: First trial set
Can the Republican billionaire maintain his seemingly insurmountable lead once he is sitting in court as a criminal defendant?
A US federal judge on Monday set 4 March, 2024, as the date for his election subversion conspiracy trial — a move immediately decried by Trump himself as “election interference.”
That date is the eve of so-called “Super Tuesday” — one of the biggest moments of the primaries when voters in more than a dozen states, including populous California and Texas, go to the polls. Colorado is also on that list, but will Trump be on the ballot?
Also Read: Trump is selling pieces of the suit he wore during arrest for $5,000. Who is buying?
Trump noted the timing, saying it was “just what our corrupt government wanted.”
Then, just three weeks later, on 25 March, Trump will have another court date — this time in New York, where he is facing charges over alleged hush money payments made to porn star Stormy Daniels.
May: Florida documents case
On 20 May, 2024, all eyes will be on Florida, where the third case against the ex-president will open: over his alleged mishandling of classified documents after leaving office.
A fourth trial could even open in 2024: Trump is also under indictment in Georgia, over an alleged conspiracy to overturn the results of the 2020 election he lost to Joe Biden.
The prosecutor in that case has asked for a 2024 trial.
July: Republican Convention
After more than a year of intense and likely acrimonious campaigning, the Republican Party will officially nominate its candidate for the November 2024 presidential election at its convention in Milwaukee in mid-July.
The event will mark the formal start of the final leg of campaigning, pitting the Republican candidate against Democratic incumbent President Joe Biden, who should formally earn his party’s nomination in August in Chicago.
Will Trump be able to hang on long enough to make it to the convention as the frontrunner?
November: Election Day
Tens of millions of American voters will head to polling places on 5 November, 2024, to choose the next person to occupy the White House.
Will the United States see a rematch of the 2020 election between Trump and Biden?
The country has never elected a president who was previously indicted for a crime. But Trump could once again upend American political tradition.
With inputs from AFP
