With the Government’s 2030 ban on sales on new petrol and diesel vehicles looming, a survey of car dealers has found most expect it to be delayed or cancelled entirely.
Some 85 per cent don’t believe the ban will go ahead as planned, according to the latest Forecourt Foresight research from Close Brothers Motor Finance, which is based on responses from 157 UK dealerships.
It comes as the automotive trade body yesterday called – not for the first time – on ministers to slash taxation on electric vehicle charging costs and to confirm its proposed Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate to help drive up demand for electric cars before the end of the decade.
This came after a poll revealed that only two per cent of UK motorists want to buy an EV today.
Car dealers doubt 2030 petrol and diesel ban: A survey of 157 motor retailers found that 66% think it will be delayed while a further 18% believe it will be cancelled entirely
Two-thirds of dealers quizzed by the motor finance company believe the ban – which will see the sales of new petrol and diesel only vehicles removed from showrooms, while hybrids can only be sold for a further five years – will be delayed.
A further one in five think it will be scrapped altogether.
In addition, 54 per cent of used dealers don’t currently stock electric cars having seen a slowdown in demand for them.
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This comes after a huge decline in EV values in the last 12 months, which has seen some models shed more than half of their second-hand price and dealer bosses hesitant to add EVs to their forecourts in the fear it will take too long to sell them and they could take a big hit on each model.
As well as not stocking EVs, only one per cent of car dealers told the study they plan to invest in charging points in the next six months.
This is despite the Government’s desperate need to ramp-up electric car sales among British drivers.
MPs have been told they need to look how best to encourage, support and incentivise both motorists and dealers to increase electric car sales
Latest vehicle registration figures published by the Society of Manufacturers and Traders show that one in five new motors entering our roads in August were electric cars.
However, this was largely driven by a rise in business and fleet registrations – on the back of favourable incentives – and not private car buyers.
READ MORE: The 30 used electric cars that plunged in price most in the past turbulent year for EV owners
If fact, industry figures show the private share of battery electric new cars has fallen from more than a third (36.2 per cent) in the first half of 2022 to less than a quarter (24.2 per cent) during the same period this year.
This has been reflected in the Close Brothers Motor Finance report, which suggests that dealers are not yet seeing the same level of growth in customer demand.
Lisa Watson, director of sales at the finance company, said: ‘We know that consumers have mixed emotions about the switch to electric; with only one in ten saying they are planning a pure electric car as their next purchase in recent research.
‘Dealers are joining them in their belief that change will not happen fast enough to meet the current plan to ban the sale of all new solely petrol and diesel vehicles in the UK in 2030.
‘There are still major perception barriers to overcome. Given the current economic climate and financial pressures faced by many UK households, the initial outlay costs are prohibiting more widespread EV adoption in the UK.
‘Costs combined with the lack of infrastructure is impacting consumer demand, which in turn impacts the stock that dealers are selling on their forecourts.’
Lisa added: ‘If the Government wants to meet its 2030 target, then it will need to look how best to encourage, support and incentivise both motorists and dealers.’
Close Brothers Motor Finance’s study reflect the results of a poll conducted for the Daily Mail in July. It found that only 28 per cent of the public thinks the 2030 ban is a good idea.
Yesterday former prime minister Liz Truss became the latest high-profile politician to call for the 2030 ban to be ditched.
She said: ‘We should – as many other Western countries are already doing – delay implementing net-zero commitments such as the ban on new petrol and diesel vehicles from 2030.’
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is carrying out an audit of his net-zero policies (more on this further down) to see which ones might be softened or ditched ahead of the next election.
However, he is understood to be pressing ahead with the 2030 ban despite concerns about the spiralling costs of running one.
Government needs to ‘go on the offensive’ with incentives to drive EV sales, car makers say
The report comes on the day the SMMT hosts its annual ‘Electrified’ event in London, where car makers have urged ministers to ‘go on the offensive’ to make electric motoring more appealing to motorists.
The SMMT said the UK is the only major European car market with no incentives for consumer purchases of EVs but has ‘the most ambitious timeline’.
As such, this is strangling demand for battery-powered cars today, it surmised from a poll of 2,375 UK motorists carried out on its behalf.
The result showed that just two per cent would buy an EV right now – and more than half are not planning to buy one until 2026 or later.
As well as the 2030 ban on sales of new petrol and diesel cars and vans, the Government is widely expected to confirm its ZEV mandate, that will stipulate the brands will need to sell an increasing share of EVs from 2024 through to 2035.
READ MORE: ‘Half of new cars sold must be electric by 2028’: Ministers propose binding targets for increasing sales via ZEV mandate
However, with just over 100 days remaining in 2023, the SMMT said time is running out for ministers to clarify the requirements of the ZEV mandate to manufacturers.
Chief executive of the SMMT, Mike Hawes, said: ‘Within the market we’re moving from perhaps the early adopter phase, we need to now make it mainstream.
‘I was never worried about the first 20 per cent. I’m worried more about the last 20 per cent of that market shift.
‘To create that mass market you must help consumers make the transition more quickly.’
Mr Hawes went on: ‘We believe every option needs to be considered to help that private consumer make the transition.’
He called for ‘targeted support’ such as reducing VAT on public charging and the purchase of EVs, exempting EVs from the expensive car supplement in vehicle excise duty, and a ‘national mandated’ plan to improve the charging network.
He added: ‘It’s not just a commercial imperative. It’s a matter of social justice to have a fair transition across the country.
‘We’re on the road to electric vehicles as an industry and as a society so it makes no sense to delay.’
Mike Hawes, chief exec at the SMMT, has called on ministers to increase incentives for drivers to switch to EVs, including tax cuts on public charging. He also called for the Zero Emission Vehicle mandate to be confirmed as soon as possible
Alex Smith, managing director of Volkswagen Group UK, said the ‘progressive withdrawal of incentives’ has caused ‘stagnation’ in demand for EVs from private buyers.
He warned that EVs are ‘regarded by the private consumer as relatively expensive’.
He said: ‘It’s true to say that with the retail price of an electric car versus an equivalent petrol or diesel car, you will find a premium.
READ MORE: Massive car maker says it sees petrol vehicles being on our roads until 2050
‘The technology is new, the volumes and the economies of scale so far are not fully realised, so there’s a premium.
‘But when you look at the operating costs, when you look at the fuelling costs of petrol usage versus electricity usage, especially if the majority of charging is done at home, then the argument [for EVs] becomes far more compelling.
‘I think incentivisation in the private market still has a role to play in terms of signalling the direction of travel.
‘We also need to continue to make sure that our explanations to consumers are crystal clear in terms of the affordability over the whole ownership cycle, rather than just at the point of initial purchase.’
Ian Plummer, commercial director at Auto Trader, added: ‘Support from the tax system to put the used EV market on a more sustainable footing is vital for the sustainability of the entire EV market and our chances of successfully transitioning to EVs by 2030.
‘Consumers are still worried about affordability and charging, which is why we need a clear statement of intent from the Government. Penalising drivers who have to charge in public with higher VAT is simply unfair: we need to end this charging injustice.’
The Climate Change Committee has been calling for speaking to experts within the motor sector about the feasibility of transitioning to electric cars by the end of the decade
MPs face fresh warnings about 2030 ban
The House of Lords Environment and Climate Change Committee has for the last few weeks been hearing from experts within the motor industry as part of its inquiry into the feasibility around the mass-market switch to EVs.
Sue Robinson, chief executive of the National Franchised Dealers Association (NFDA) – which represents car and commercial retailers across the UK – said: ‘With the phase-out dates of 2030 and 2035 [for hybrids] approaching at pace, it is imperative government greater understands the entire situation from a retailing and industry perspective.
Sue Robinson, chief executive of the National Franchised Dealers Association
‘The House of Lords Electric Vehicle Call for Evidence presents the opportunity for NFDA to outline the challenges hindering the decarbonisation of private mobility in the UK, the mass adoption of electric vehicles from consumers and why banning new internal combustion engine vehicles by 2030 is an ambitious target.’
In its response given on Friday, it warned that the UK’s charging infrastructure is seen as the main barrier to achieving this ambition, with 87 per cent of franchised retailers saying it is affecting the deadline a ‘great deal’.
The NDFA went on: ‘Franchised dealers invested heavily in EVs and the lack of stability from government through the removal of incentives like the Plug-in Car Grant (PiCG) and the introduction of VED for EVs in 2025 has only hindered the uptake of EV adoption and created uncertainty with consumers and the industry.
‘There is a real concern from dealers that EV demand is beginning to plateau with the cost-of-living crisis and household disposable income at its lowest for years, impacting consumer demand for EV products.’
In its response to the committee, the Petrol Retailers Association’s (PRA) executive director, Gordon Balmer, told MPs: ‘The PRA is supportive of the need to decarbonise the economy and achieve Net Zero, but we are increasingly sceptical of the country’s ability to do so in the defined time period given that certain targets are not being met.’
He added: ‘Retailers need more clarity concerning timeframes and how realistically they can be achieved, given how far behind we are on our infrastructure targets.
‘PRA members support decarbonisation but recognise the need for more realistic interim measures that would gauge our progress towards it.’
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