If England manage to retain their World Cup title, it will be a phenomenal effort but my overriding feeling is that if India play their perfect tournament, they are going to be very difficult to stop.
Jos Buttler certainly has the team to challenge, one with the ability to post high totals, but I just think India, as hosts and the top-ranked ODI side, will be a hugely difficult proposition to get past.
Recent history shows you that home teams tend to prosper in 50-over World Cups: it was in India in 2011, and India won; the final was in Australia in 2015, Australia won the trophy; England won in 2019. So, on that basis alone, India would have to be huge favourites.
Then take into account that they’re playing pretty decent cricket, and their key fast bowling star Jasprit Bumrah is coming back to full fitness.
Contrast to England. Without sounding like I am giving them excuses, they have got a pretty tough draw, to be honest. They do not play two games in the same location, instead travelling from city to city.
Hosts India are going to be very hard to stop if they play their perfect tournament
Recent history shows you that home teams tend to prosper in 50-over World Cups
Others have the luxury of being able to book in somewhere for a week and play two games. They do not. But the fact every team plays everyone else in the round robin stage means England would be absolutely distraught not to make the semis and final.
One thing I would warn people, though, is not to expect pitches that turn massively and spinners doing loads of damage. Expect the odd turning pitch in the south, but in general they will just be really good for batting and the bowlers will have to be right on the money.
I played in the World Cup in India in 2011 and we got a bit of reverse swing in Chennai, but that was in the days when you played with one ball per innings. We played in Bangalore twice and it was a batter’s dream.
So, this time, if England are going to come out on top, it’ll be because the bowlers that have performed and I see Chris Woakes and Sam Curran as vital in this regard. I don’t know that the selectors will risk playing Mark Wood in every game, preserving his pace for when they need it the most, whereas I’d imagine Woakes and Curran will be penned in at No8 and No9, playing every game.
Selection was already a big talking point before the 15-man squad flew to the subcontinent, of course, and in the end Jason Roy lost out in a shootout with Dawid Malan.
Jos Buttler certainly has the team to challenge but India could prove to be too strong
Bowlers Chris Woakes (pictured) and Sam Curran will be vital if England are to succeed
Harry Brook can bat anywhere from one to six, while both of those two are top-three players and although Brook wasn’t in the initial squad they picked, he was on the plane in most people’s minds. It was the right call to get him in.
Unfortunately for Jason, a back spasm arrived which allowed the opportunity for Malan to carry on the fine form he’s always shown in an England shirt.
Sport often is about timing and it shows more evidence of a strength in depth that preceding generations have not had pre-World Cup. The only other comparable decision was Jofra Archer replacing David Willey in the previous tournament in the UK. It’s the only time I can recall England leaving out a strong player from the squad.
Brook has played just six one-day internationals but like Archer four years ago, he’s in for his overall potential not proven 50-over ability. Equally, it didn’t surprise me that Ben Stokes made himself available — it’s probably a sign of things to come in future World Cups.
Going forward, leading players might opt to rest their bodies for bilateral series, coming in just for the big tournaments. There were rumours of it happening with AB de Villiers and South Africa in 2019.
It’s not something that bothers me at all because you want your best players on show, and Ben Stokes is one of those.
From an England perspective, Ben Stokes will show his true worth in the knockout games
From an England perspective, Stokes will show his true worth in the knockout games. Because when the World Cup comes to a head, you want him in the middle order. His ability to cope with pressure is one of the main reasons he has been picked. It isn’t a quality that’s inherent.
You learn it from experience and Stokes learned from his lowest moment, in the final of 2016’s Twenty20 World Cup. Since getting hit for four sixes by Carlos Brathwaite, look at how he’s coped with pressure scenarios.
Since then, England have won a couple of World Cups, and some Ashes Tests because of him.
As for the other semi-finalists? Pakistan will be a threat. Their bowling is full of natural wicket-takers and is their huge strength. In players like Babar Azam they have some high quality batters but Haris Rauf and Shaheen Shah Afridi can blow opponents away.
I’d then probably say New Zealand over Australia. Why? Because, New Zealand are the ultimate tournament team. Put their team sheets next to each other and you’d always lean towards the Aussies with Steve Smith, David Warner, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, but New Zealand just find a way.
